Olympian hurdles ahead for Nuke Deal
Despite UPA government's victory in the crucial trust vote over the Indo-US nuclear deal in the parliament and the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) unanimous vote in support of it on August 1, the way ahead is laden with hurdles skeptics believe impossible to cross. On August 21, the agreement goes before the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for a second approval. Austria, Japan, Brazil, Iraq and Switzerland – NSG member nations already have some apprehensions due to India's failure to accede to the long-stalled Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Critics say it undermines the Non Proliferation Treaty, which holds that only countries, which renounce nuclear weapons, qualify for civilian nuclear assistance.The accord sends the wrong message: it could undercut a US-led campaign to curtail Iran's nuclear program and open the way for a potential arms race in South Asia. And that India says 14 of its 22 nuclear facilities are civilian. Critics say the pact could make bomb making at the other eight easier, as civilian nuclear fuel needs will be met by the US.
Sumit Ganguly, a Professor of Political Science and Director of Research of the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University, Bloomington in one of his recent articles has rightly tackled each and every objection against the pact by the nonproliferation brigade highlighting the incapability of the naysayers to recognize India's unique credentials and unscrupulous motives of countries such as Iran, Pakistan and North Korea.
Assuming the agreement does go through this hurdle too, it will then have to seek approval from the US Congress. Now therein lies the main problem: the US is primarily focused right now on the November election to elect a new president, all 435 members of the House of Representatives (HoR) and one-third of the Senate. Do Bush and Congress have the time to overcome hurdles to win the N-deal for India? This question arises because of complex statutory requirements and the tight congressional calendar.
The Atomic Energy Act and the Hyde Act, which enables civilian nuclear trade between US and India, demand that the agreement, after IAEA and NSG approval, must lie in Congress for 30 days of continuous session before it's taken up for an up or down vote. Lawmakers will leave on their month-long summer recess in August and return on September 8 for a session scheduled to end on September 26. This makes it next to impossible to meet the 30-day requirement. There are certain loopholes which the Indian government can explore however analysts contend that since the Hyde Act, there is new information to process and carefully assess: the 123 Agreement itself, India's safeguards agreement and potentially, an NSG decision. And with both Senator McCain and Senator Obama supporting it, it could even be left to the next Congress to take up the N-deal. But then, 2009 is the election year in India. Without the deal Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could find himself deprived of the issue he considers potent enough to woo the electorate.
The whole nuclear deal has been caught in an ugly debate over the long-term national interest.There is a strong feeling among many of the nuclear scientists and others that once India is brought under the thumb of international community by heavy dependence on imports, it may them constrained so as not to take bold independent decisions in the future for fear of adverse economic fallout. US law provides enough scope for arm-twisting, particularly after heavy investments by India. This and other issues of concern need to be properly addressed says A N Prasad, former director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre.
India's current attractiveness to the US comes from its potential role as a partner against terrorism and as a fellow democracy. Of course India's strategic location in South Asia and it being a potential ally to thwart China's growing influence over the world is seen as US's prime interest.
While the nuclear deal's avowed purpose is to serve India's future energy needs, one should take that objective with a grain of salt says Nirvikar Singh, Professor of Economics and Co-Director of the Center for Global, International and Regional Studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz in his July article India's Nuclear Deal and Benchmarking against China. The way India has dealt with certain key economic propellants such as liberalization in research and development and education sector. "The bottom line is that India has much to learn from China in areas of international economic policy as well as foreign policy. Even if the government cannot become more efficient in its basic functions, it can at least create an enabling environment for foreign capital and expertise to enter more freely in areas where they can make a long run difference to India's growth: higher education and R&D.This will ultimately be more important than matching China in nuclear prestige, and more fitting with India's new global confidence," says Singh. While the fate of the nuclear deal rests on plenty of extraneous factors there's a lot India has to work upon and nuclear energy is a part of it.
- Editor
