Do Not See The Kashmir Issue Through The Prism Of Afghanistan

The Kashmir issue came to the fore once again, especially after the Mumbai terror attacks in December last year. Kashmir has been a sticking point in the good relations between Pakistan and India for the past six decades since they attained independence from the British in 1947. Today, everyone seems to be busy seeking to avoid a showdown between the two nuclear weapon nations in the South Asian region. The United States seems to look at the Kashmir issue through the prism of its usefulness in its fight against terrorism in Afghanistan. During the US presidential campaign, President Barack Obama had vowed to push for a diplomatic solution to the Kashmir dispute. “(It would be one of the) critical tasks for the next administration,” he had told MSNBC. “We should try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that [Pakistan] can stay focused – not on India, but on the situation with those militants."

In July last year, Obama said the situation in Afghanistan might be made easier if the United States worked to improve trust between India and Pakistan. He also accused Pakistan of misusing U.S. military aid meant to help it fight al Qaeda and the Taliban to prepare for war against India. In the journal, Foreign Affairs, in the summer of 2007, Obama had argued, “If Pakistan can look towards the east (India) with confidence, it will be less likely to believe its interests are best advanced through cooperation with the Taliban."

Seeking to refocus its attention on Taliban and the terrorists networks in Afghanistan, especially after the Bush administration was severely criticized by Obama during the campaign for letting its eyes off the mountainous regions in Afghanistan, U.S. analysts now hope that the solution to Afghanistan lies in Pakistan, not just because al Qaeda and the Taliban are based there but also because they believe Pakistan will never fully turn its back on Islamist militants as long as it thinks it can use them against India. Many in the United States believe that it is in America’s interest to see that the

Kashmir issue is resolved. However, they are also of the view, just as Lee Hamilton, vice-chairman of the 9/11 Commission and now president of the prestigious Washington-based think tank, Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars, had said recently that the US can only encourage India and Pakistan to work towards a solution. “We certainly need to work with Pakistan and India to resolve the Kashmir problem. The United States can’t resolve that but we can encourage the two parties to address it. This is going to take some very tough, difficult diplomacy and it will take a good bit of time to resolve it," Hamilton said.

Obama’s comments were welcomed by Kashmiris. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, chairman of the separatist Hurriyat alliance, said, “The US and international community is gradually recognizing that resolution of Kashmir dispute was imperative for peace in South Asia.” Prof. Nazir Ahmed Shawl, Director, Kashmir Centre London, expressed hope that the new US President and his team will respond to various challenges on different fronts and in different regions. "One of the challenges is the sixty two years Kashmir imbroglio which is a great destabilizing factor for south Asian regional stability and peace," he said in a statement.

However, India has a different take on the approach of the Obama administration to the Kashmir issue. As C Raja Mohan, an analyst, fears that while India would agree that a Pakistan secure within its own borders would be good for the region, “India’s problem with the Obama thesis is in the

simplistic trade-off it sets up between Kashmir and Afghanistan.” And it’s believed in the Indian circle that American activism could backfire by undermining the current bilateral peace process, convince the Pakistan Army to harden its stance on Kashmir and give a fresh boost to militancy there.

If Obama’s “Kashmir thesis” becomes the policy, many negative consequences are expected to follow. For one, an American diplomatic intervention in Kashmir will make it impossible for India to pursue the current serious negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir, the first since 1962-63.

B. Raman, an expert on security and anti-terrorism operations, quoting wellinformed sources in India stated that if the US President "wants to severely damage the developing Indo-US relations he could not have thought of a better idea than to meddle in Kashmir. So many Americans— —Presidents, Presidents-elect and defeated Presidential-aspirants—— thought they could help in finding a solution to the Kashmir issue and burnt their fingers and damaged Indo-US relations." It's interesting to note in his writings that since 1947, there have been "more instances of meddling by Democrats than by Republicans." And he draws the attention of the public to the fact that “if one draws a graph of terrorism in J&K, one would find that it tends to go up when a Democrat is the President." Truly a warning sign for the 44th US president.

The new US administration need to understand that Kashmir is a bilateral, socio-cultural and political issue between India and Pakistan, though the element of terrorism is a major factor. India, more than any other country on earth wants the Kashmir issue to be resolved and peacefully. The 62-year-old dispute can be resolved only through a political and diplomatic initiative, especially between the two countries. The fact that India has been successfully holding elections for more than 50 years and the people in Kashmir actively participate in the universal adult franchise, despite serious threats from the terrorists outfits, must convince the world community to the fact that people in Kashmir see their future in being part of India, and will not allow terrorism to dictate their future.

BY AJAY GHOSH